Aston Villa Defy Logic Again as Winning Streak Rolls On at Stamford Bridge
This surely should not go on. It makes no sense that it persists. Yet, persist it does.
A Historic Victory Defying Expectations
The Claret and Blue army arrived at the weekend's top-flight clash at Chelsea aiming for a club record of eleven consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in 1897 and 1914. For the opening hour, achieving it seemed improbable, as Chelsea dominated proceedings, took the lead, and might have added to their advantage. However, Chelsea have shown vulnerability when ahead, particularly at home, while Villa have cultivated a remarkable knack of snatching away victories from losing positions.
First, Ollie Watkins equalised, the ball ricocheting in off his leg and the post after his initial shot was blocked by Robert Sánchez. Later on, he secured the decisive goal with a deft header. These were just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. Watkins might feel some fortune was overdue, and there's no question the equalizing goal involved a large slice of luck. At the moment, however, fortune is smiling on Villa.
The Statistics Of an Implausible Run
Nine of these 11 straight wins were by a solitary goal. They have managed a clean sheet in only one of those matches. Their underlying metrics have been superior in only six of those encounters, and in a couple of those, the margin was 0.2 or less. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come from behind. This pattern seems unsustainable, but pundits have been claiming that for weeks, and Villa keep on winning. The key question is whether their results will finally match their performances or if their performances can improve to match the points haul.
This seems unsustainable be sustainable, but everyone has been stating that for weeks and Villa keep on winning.
A Core Trait: Resilience
Coming from behind is not merely a trait of the current campaign. Over the past three seasons, no team has won more points from losing positions than Villa's 54; Eighteen of those were secured this term, fifty percent more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa players from the bench have contributed 9 goals. Two important points can be made about Villa under their manager.
- Firstly, they possess a deep-rooted confidence that means no deficit ever feels beyond them. This is, in part, a virtuous cycle: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they believe they can do it again.
- Secondly, Emery has proven very adept at influencing games through his substitutions.
A Masterful Change
While Chelsea won the expected goals 2.1 to 1.4, Villa were dominant from the moment, just before the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple substitution. Ollie Watkins replaced Donyell Malen, who had found it difficult with few chances. Immediately, the ball began to stick, and Watkins's movement in behind created issues. Onana and Sancho also came on, bolstering the midfield and adding the width they had lacked earlier.
The Blues registered 10 shots to Villa's zero before the substitutions; afterwards, Villa created eleven opportunities to Chelsea's 4. By the final whistle, Villa were commanding and could easily have won more comfortably. Once again, opposing manager Enzo Maresca seemed unable to react as the game slipped away; the sense remains that he is better at devising a game plan with preparation time than making adjustments in the moment.
Moment of Magic
Villa have also developed a happy habit of individuals producing pieces of match-winning quality to alter games. Morgan Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him shifting the ball onto his favored foot and curling a finish home has become a seasonal theme. It was Malen who transformed the game after coming on at Leeds. The striker changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The contributions of defenders like Ezri Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were key. Right now, it's not always the whole side playing brilliantly, but sufficient players within it delivering to earn the victories.
What Comes Next?
Will they be able to maintain this run? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season nears its midway point, they must be considered as in the championship conversation, certainly more so than club world champions Chelsea or reigning title holders Liverpool. Tuesday's away fixture at Arsenal will be a major test of that status. Villa defeated Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only had better the xG but posted an xG 40% higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this term.
Arsenal have assembled their own sequence of narrow victories, winning 3 in a row without ever being wholly convincing. Tuesday will be a test for both sides – and if Villa secure a 12th game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to deny their championship pedigree.