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For a brief period, Trump seemed to adopt a firm approach concerning Ukraine. After issuing threats of "serious consequences" during the summer should Russia's president carried on blocking ceasefire talks, the former president eventually imposed considerable penalties on the Russian biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously hindered the Russian leader's capability to support his aggression in the region.

But, with his latest detailed peace initiative for the conflict, which was developed by both nations' diplomats lacking Ukrainian or EU involvement, Trump has apparently gone back to his Russia-friendly position.

Favoring Military Action

Trump's plan would effectively favor the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democracy in jeopardy. Although bold proclamations that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", much of the plan in reality undermine that essential independence. Seen as a Moscow's wish would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his real-estate experience, the former president seems to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic land disagreement, like giving Russia a portion of Ukraine's land will appease the leader. Yet, Putin's war is not merely about dominating a charred region of industrial-devastated area in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to destroy it so it no longer acts as an attractive model for the Russian people of the accountable government that his increasing autocracy denies them.

Border Giveaways

While freezing in status the presently divided regions of these areas, Trump's proposal would require Ukraine to abandon all of Donetsk region. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in more than a decade of warfare, this concession would leave Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously weakened.

This region is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the fortified defensive positions that constitute a critical impediment to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, providing Putin a unobstructed path to Kyiv if he eventually choose to renew the hostilities.

Armed Forces Limitations

Additionally, in a step that would facilitate future conflict easier for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to cut the numbers of its military from their present large number soldiers to a maximum of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's proposal sets no similar constraints on the invading army.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's efforts to portray Ukraine's legitimate leadership as extremists, the proposal declares: "All radical belief system and actions must be condemned and prohibited." Apparently to emphasize this element, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump places no obligation that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by holding votes in Russia.

Security Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative includes Russia commit not to "enter other states" and to "establish in regulation its position of non-aggression towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent accords in the history – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in return for surrendering its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a restoration of seized areas in the Donbas to Kyiv – how should we have confidence in this commitment this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international security guarantees. While the proposal promises a "immediate unified defense action" should the Russian Federation renew its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the details vary from vague to concerning. The initiative would not just deny Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude member states from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively blocking the security presence, reportedly led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Putin from restoring his diminished military, restocking, and reinvading.

Global Reaction

Another supplementary accord apparently would offer the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any later "major, planned, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. But different from a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's best defense against additional Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the commitment of alliance members, like the US administration, to react with force to Putin's aggression, an action they have {not