🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

However the latest field is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and recent strugglers rising in unison. Under an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still