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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.