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Well. From one perspective, the nation's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.