UK Diplomats Advised Regarding Military Action to Topple Robert Mugabe

Recently released papers show that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military intervention to remove the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".

Policy Papers Reveal Considerations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Internal documents from Tony Blair's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Isolation Strategy Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was not working, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the documents included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the approach advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles

It cautioned that military involvement would cause significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we judge that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document adds: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We should work out a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.